Refinancing, resilience and recovery: Germany’s real estate market

Across Germany, refinancing and restructuring activity remains a defining feature of the market. A significant volume of loans originated in a different interest rate environment are now reaching maturity, prompting borrowers and lenders to explore extensions, amendments and refinancing solutions. In some cases, valuation movements continue to create challenges, requiring greater scrutiny of business plans and cash flow assumptions. At the same time, a number of banks and other lenders are actively managing balance sheets and reducing real estate exposure, creating selective opportunities in the loan market and for investors with capital ready to deploy.

Despite these headwinds, sentiment towards the German real estate market appears to be shifting. After a prolonged period where many investors remained on the sidelines amid concerns that values could fall further, there is growing evidence that pricing has stabilised over the past 12 to 18 months. While much will depend on the future path of interest rates, international investors and family offices are already beginning to re-enter the market, identifying opportunities where pricing has adjusted and long-term fundamentals remain strong. For many, the question is no longer whether to look at Germany, but where to find the right opportunities.

One sector that continues to demonstrate resilience is logistics. Demand drivers such as e-commerce, supply chain optimisation and the ongoing need for modern, sustainable warehouse space continue to support both investment and financing activity. The sector remains one of the most active areas of the market, generating a consistent flow of transactions and refinancing mandates. Recent portfolio refinancing activity further underlines the depth of lender appetite for high-quality logistics assets and reinforces the sector's position as one of the strongest performers in European real estate.

As the industry gathers at EXPO, some of the key themes to watch will be refinancing-driven deal flow, the evolution of lender strategies and whether improving investor confidence translates into a broader recovery in transaction volumes. For those willing to take a long-term view, Germany may increasingly be seen as a market moving from correction towards opportunity.